How to Predict the Future, Unplug Effectively, & More
The Friday Five: Episode LI
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Today at a Glance:
Quote: The power of the unplug.
Framework: The weekend test.
Tweet: 18 productivity insights.
Article: NASA’s warp drive ship design.
Podcast: How he built Discord.
One Quote:
“Almost everything will work again if you unplug it for a few minutes, including you.” — Anne Lamott
More connectedness, less connection.
Embrace daily solitude—reset yourself.
One Framework:
The Weekend Test
"What the smartest people do on the weekend is what everyone else will do during the week in ten years." — Chris Dixon
I’m a big fan of this idea, because it functions as a simple “razor” to predict the future.
It generally checks out with backtesting when I think about what my smartest friends were tinkering with on the weekends over the last 10-15 years. If I had paid more attention, I think I would have identified both gaming/e-sports and crypto/web3 as mega-trends that were likely to be impactful and profitable.
Observe the weekend projects of the smartest people in your circles. More broadly, think about the odd or funny hobbies of those people. What are they obsessing over? What are they spending their time or free energy on?
Betting on those areas won’t work out every single time, but it’s likely to be a positive expected value bet that you should make consistently…
My rule of thumb is simple:
If 3 smart friends tell me about something that sounds crazy, I put some skin in the game with a bit of money. I set a fixed amount for this type of bet—something that feels comfortable to lose but has sufficient upside if it works.
I’m forced to dive deeper now that I have skin in the game.
Sometimes I learn more and fold; more often I learn more and double down.
These have consistently been bets that delivered outsized returns.
One Tweet:
This was a good thread filled with short, direct productivity insights.
There were two that really resonated with me:
Progressive Overload: This was a concept I learned in my baseball training days. Basically you can add a bit of additional stress each week and build the muscle by progressively overloading it. Applying that to focus work is an interesting concept I’m going to experiment with—30 minute blocks one week, then 35 minutes the next week, and so on. Probably some local maximum, but it does seem interesting in theory.
Public Commitments: I talked about this in my procrastination guide. Leveraging the power of public embarrassment is a real motivator.
One Article:
Impossible Physics: Meet NASA’s Design for a Warp Drive Ship
I’ve recently developed a child-like obsession with space.
I’ve always loved science fiction books—if you haven’t read Project Hail Mary, do yourself a favor and read it this weekend—but this newfound obsession is unrelated to my taste in novels. I’m going to blame the amazing Tim Urban, who threw me down the rabbit hole during a recent conversation for a soon-to-be-released podcast episode (which you won’t want to miss).
In any case, this article was one of my favorite reads as I ventured further down into the idea maze. It’s a simple breakdown of a design proposal for a warp drive ship that actually…might work?
The basic idea:
Interstellar travel is pretty challenging if we can’t move faster than the speed of light—but the laws of physics say we can’t do it.
In 1994, physicist Miguel Alcubierre hypothesized that you could travel faster than the speed of light without breaking the laws of physics. He proposed a device—called the Alcubierre Drive—that would basically contract space time in front of the ship and expand it behind the ship.
It turns out that it’s *theoretically* possible, and NASA has actually worked on designs for the theoretical ship (tons of pictures here).
Our nearest star—Proxima Centauri—is four light-years away. Getting there with current means would take over 17,000 years. The Alcubierre Drive Ship would get you there in 5 months!
Man…the future is so cool!
One Podcast:
How I Built This: Discord—Jason Citron
Discord is a fascinating business. I personally think the product leaves a lot to be desired, so I was interested to learn more about the story and how it scaled so quickly to become the de facto owner of both gaming and web3 community interaction.
Great listen and well worth your time if you’re interested in the space!
Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
Where It Happens Podcast
How To Invest Like An Optimist With Morgan Housel
Watch it on YouTube and listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
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If space and interstellar travel don't consume your entire weekend, I've failed you.