The Crazy Idea Framework, Meeting Inflation, & More
The Friday Five: Episode XLVIII
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Today at a Glance:
Quote: Small acts of courage.
Framework: The Crazy Idea.
Tweet: Memes control the world.
Article: We have too many meetings!
Podcast: Balaji’s Network State.
One Quote:
“Courage doesn't always roar. Sometimes courage is the quiet voice at the end of the day whispering, ‘I will try again tomorrow.’” — Mary Anne Radmacher
Large triumphs are simply the byproduct of many small acts of courage.
One Framework:
The Crazy Idea Framework
If you spend time around technology, startups, or business, you encounter a lot of seemingly crazy ideas.
These ideas generally fall into two categories:
Nothing—half-baked nonsense.
Something—asymmetric bet on the future.
The challenge is figuring out which ideas are nothing, and which ideas are something. Paul Graham once wrote about this challenge and proposed an elegant method for determining the answer…
If someone proposes a crazy idea, ask two questions:
Are they a domain expert on the field in question?
Do I know them to be a reasonable person?
If you can answer yes on both (1) and (2), you should take the idea seriously, as it’s likely to be something—an asymmetric bet on the future.
Sahil Note: I use this framework constantly. I have a rule: if I can answer yes on both questions, I put a small amount of money behind the bet, no questions asked. This rule exposes me to a variety of asymmetric bets, many of which will collapse hilariously, but some of which I’m confident will pay off quite handsomely.
One Tweet:
There are several things I like about this:
Engaging kids in learning history through creating memes is pretty genius. Spark creativity and make the information stick. Makes learning active and fun.
Like it or not, memes will increasingly drive society and narratives. The next generation will know that better than most.
Some of the memes are legitimately very good—a lot of dark humor, given the era they cover.
One Article:
This Is What Happens When There Are Too Many Meetings
Fascinating article on the challenges of remote and hybrid work—in particular the rise of the so-called “third peak” in a knowledge worker’s workday.
The below chart from the article was produced by Microsoft researchers, who tracked computer activity of platform users during their typical day. Pre-pandemic, the two main peaks—pre-lunch and post-lunch—were the only noticeable ones on the chart. In the era of remote and hybrid work, workers are experiencing a third peak—the window in the evening on the far right.
The article focuses on “meeting inflation” as an underlying driver of the new peak, but also mentions additional flexibility on workday management as another potential root cause.
If you are a knowledge worker, is this “third peak” something you’re experiencing? Is it a positive or a negative for your work and work-life balance?
One Podcast:
Balaji Srinivasan: The Network State — The Knowledge Project
Balaji is one of those deep thinkers that is almost too smart—I find myself pausing and looking up topics and concepts constantly when I listen to him or read his work.
Shane is a great interviewer and this is a fascinating discussion. Great for a weekend walk. It will make you think deeply about the world, the future of statelessness, and technology.
My friend Ryan Hoover had the right idea listening to this one on 1/2x speed…
Listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Where It Happens Podcast
Is Terra's Luna ($LUNA) Headed To The Moon? | Ndamukong Suh
Watch it on YouTube and listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Want more? Join the 4,000+ in our unique community on Discord.
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I like the crazy idea framework. Will remember that as I make decisions